Forecasting Population Mortality Rates Using Generalized Lee-Carter Model

The demographic process cannot be inseparable from the mortality rate. appropriate models for forecasting rates are essential in assisting governments, companies, and other agencies formulating policies or making decisions. As one of countries with highest death rate, Japan is influenced by several factors. This research uses Generalized Lee-Carter Model), which developments (LC) model. model was prevalent Lee Carter (1995) as an alternative that suspected to predict rate area. first step this formulate function. Through function formula, estimator value will searched second stage. And third stage, through model, find RMSE then use it fourth namely future period using ARIMA. data study facilitated www.mortality.org, Japanese population data. result showed females 0.01670 0.016292 males. So, concluded Model great rates.